TIMA // TRACKER SCORECARD

regenerated 2026-07-28 08:15 UTC · window 2026-07-10 → now · 116961 tracks · 496 TOR warnings · 81 SPC tornado reports

476/496TOR warnings with a ≥40% track beforehand

48mmedian lead to warning (raw)

96186ended US tracks in outcome stats

A · Warning anticipation — every TOR warning since deployment

warning	sent	lead	max score prior	track
Cerro Gordo, IA	07-10 21:34Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Burke, NC; Catawba, NC; Cleveland,	07-10 22:51Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Burke, NC; Catawba, NC; Lincoln, N	07-10 23:01Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Catawba, NC	07-10 23:12Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Posey, IN	07-11 21:55Z	47 min	77%	T20260711-f44800
Posey, IN	07-11 22:13Z	65 min	85%	T20260711-f44800
Posey, IN	07-11 22:27Z	79 min	85%	T20260711-f44800
Liberty, GA	07-12 23:40Z	66 min	46%	T20260712-f976b8
Bexar, TX	07-14 23:55Z	43 min	64%	T20260714-2543c0
Bexar, TX	07-14 23:55Z	43 min	64%	T20260714-2543c0
Uvalde, TX	07-15 06:07Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Uvalde, TX	07-15 06:24Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Frio, TX; Medina, TX	07-15 10:45Z	43 min	79%	T20260715-b992f4
Frio, TX; Medina, TX	07-15 10:54Z	52 min	79%	T20260715-b992f4
Frio, TX; Medina, TX	07-15 11:08Z	66 min	79%	T20260715-b992f4
Frio, TX; Medina, TX	07-15 11:23Z	81 min	79%	T20260715-b992f4
Frio, TX; Medina, TX	07-15 11:37Z	95 min	79%	T20260715-b992f4
Medina, TX	07-15 11:50Z	108 min	79%	T20260715-b992f4
Bexar, TX; Comal, TX; Kendall, TX	07-15 12:49Z	19 min	67%	T20260715-576921
Bexar, TX; Comal, TX; Kendall, TX	07-15 12:54Z	24 min	67%	T20260715-576921
Bexar, TX; Comal, TX; Kendall, TX	07-15 13:05Z	39 min	60%	T20260715-e232a2
Bexar, TX; Comal, TX; Kendall, TX	07-15 13:12Z	46 min	60%	T20260715-e232a2
Comal, TX; Kendall, TX	07-15 13:18Z	52 min	60%	T20260715-e232a2
Comal, TX; Kendall, TX	07-15 13:24Z	58 min	60%	T20260715-e232a2
Bexar, TX	07-15 21:04Z	78 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX	07-15 21:13Z	87 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX	07-15 21:21Z	95 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX	07-15 21:30Z	104 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX	07-15 21:37Z	111 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX	07-15 21:42Z	116 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX; Wilson, TX	07-15 22:35Z	169 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX; Wilson, TX	07-15 22:42Z	176 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX; Wilson, TX	07-15 22:49Z	183 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX; Wilson, TX	07-15 23:01Z	195 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX; Guadalupe, TX; Wilson,	07-15 23:12Z	186 min	70%	T20260715-72ab54
Bexar, TX	07-16 03:04Z	56 min	43%	T20260716-0d3af1
Bexar, TX	07-16 03:12Z	76 min	43%	T20260716-0d3af1
Bexar, TX	07-16 03:23Z	97 min	43%	T20260716-0d3af1
Uvalde, TX; Zavala, TX	07-16 05:30Z	112 min	41%	T20260716-df70ed
Uvalde, TX; Zavala, TX	07-16 05:49Z	131 min	41%	T20260716-df70ed
Uvalde, TX	07-16 06:56Z	174 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 07:04Z	182 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 07:17Z	197 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 07:27Z	207 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 07:29Z	209 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 07:35Z	215 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 08:01Z	239 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 08:09Z	247 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 08:22Z	254 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 08:40Z	218 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 08:46Z	272 min	91%	T20260716-b9def9
Uvalde, TX	07-16 09:06Z	146 min	58%	T20260716-cd106a
Kinney, TX	07-16 09:10Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Uvalde, TX	07-16 09:22Z	190 min	44%	T20260716-9baa10
Kinney, TX	07-16 09:31Z	53 min	68%	T20260716-4ff4f8
Uvalde, TX	07-16 09:35Z	147 min	52%	T20260716-74da47
Kinney, TX	07-16 09:43Z	65 min	68%	T20260716-4ff4f8
Uvalde, TX	07-16 09:48Z	138 min	97%	T20260716-42e5cc
Kinney, TX	07-16 09:52Z	74 min	68%	T20260716-4ff4f8
Real, TX; Uvalde, TX	07-16 10:04Z	108 min	74%	T20260716-574ab7
Real, TX; Uvalde, TX	07-16 10:12Z	108 min	74%	T20260716-574ab7
Edwards, TX; Real, TX; Uvalde, TX	07-16 10:38Z	144 min	74%	T20260716-574ab7
Bandera, TX; Real, TX; Uvalde, TX	07-16 10:50Z	132 min	88%	T20260716-42e5cc
Edwards, TX; Real, TX; Uvalde, TX	07-16 10:55Z	159 min	74%	T20260716-574ab7
Bandera, TX; Real, TX	07-16 11:02Z	136 min	86%	T20260716-42e5cc
Kinney, TX	07-16 11:23Z	193 min	95%	T20260716-72dc4d
Real, TX; Uvalde, TX	07-16 11:28Z	174 min	94%	T20260716-42e5cc
Kinney, TX	07-16 11:37Z	207 min	95%	T20260716-72dc4d
Real, TX; Uvalde, TX	07-16 11:41Z	183 min	88%	T20260716-42e5cc
Real, TX	07-16 11:50Z	84 min	54%	T20260716-9f4128
Cameron, PA; Clinton, PA; Potter,	07-18 22:04Z	4 min	76%	T20260718-ccaa25
Broome, NY; Delaware, NY; Wayne, P	07-18 22:18Z	14 min	67%	T20260718-e05944
Dorchester, MD; Wicomico, MD	07-18 22:24Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Delaware, NY	07-18 22:27Z	23 min	67%	T20260718-e05944
Sussex, DE; Caroline, MD	07-18 22:27Z	27 min	76%	T20260718-efa9f3
Delaware, NY	07-18 22:34Z	22 min	68%	T20260718-e87a90
Delaware, NY	07-18 22:37Z	31 min	67%	T20260718-e05944
Sussex, DE; Caroline, MD	07-18 22:38Z	38 min	76%	T20260718-efa9f3
Sussex, DE	07-18 22:45Z	45 min	76%	T20260718-efa9f3
Delaware, NY; Sullivan, NY	07-18 22:47Z	11 min	50%	T20260718-b6f210
Sussex, DE	07-18 22:54Z	54 min	76%	T20260718-efa9f3
Delaware, NY	07-18 22:55Z	49 min	67%	T20260718-e05944
Delaware, NY; Sullivan, NY	07-18 23:10Z	34 min	50%	T20260718-b6f210
Blair, PA; Centre, PA; Clearfield,	07-19 00:16Z	38 min	88%	T20260718-f11590
Blair, PA; Centre, PA; Clearfield,	07-19 00:19Z	41 min	88%	T20260718-f11590
Huntingdon, PA	07-19 00:43Z	45 min	82%	T20260718-70df16
Huntingdon, PA	07-19 00:50Z	32 min	83%	T20260718-70df16
Huntingdon, PA	07-19 00:55Z	37 min	42%	T20260719-398a1d
Huntingdon, PA	07-19 01:06Z	48 min	42%	T20260719-398a1d
Mercer, IL; Warren, IL	07-20 17:36Z	34 min	98%	T20260720-f31492
Mercer, IL; Warren, IL	07-20 17:47Z	45 min	99%	T20260720-267fdc
Warren, IL	07-20 17:57Z	51 min	99%	T20260720-267fdc
Warren, IL	07-20 18:12Z	66 min	99%	T20260720-267fdc
Edgecombe, NC; Halifax, NC	07-20 18:50Z	54 min	72%	T20260720-84ed38
Edgecombe, NC; Halifax, NC	07-20 18:58Z	62 min	72%	T20260720-84ed38
Edgecombe, NC; Halifax, NC	07-20 19:06Z	70 min	72%	T20260720-84ed38
Edgecombe, NC; Halifax, NC	07-20 19:11Z	75 min	72%	T20260720-84ed38
Black Hawk, IA; Butler, IA; Frankl	07-20 20:57Z	1 min	100%	T20260720-b9282a
Black Hawk, IA; Grundy, IA; Tama,	07-20 21:10Z	20 min	100%	T20260720-b9282a
Black Hawk, IA; Grundy, IA; Tama,	07-20 21:23Z	23 min	100%	T20260720-2d0571
Dickinson, MI; Iron, MI	07-20 21:30Z	20 min	88%	T20260720-3aff83
Black Hawk, IA; Grundy, IA; Tama,	07-20 21:33Z	33 min	100%	T20260720-2d0571
Dickinson, MI; Marquette, MI	07-20 21:34Z	24 min	89%	T20260720-3aff83
Hamilton, IA; Hardin, IA	07-20 21:34Z	58 min	91%	T20260720-3d6625
Hamilton, IA; Hardin, IA	07-20 21:40Z	52 min	76%	T20260720-3d6625
Black Hawk, IA; Grundy, IA; Tama,	07-20 21:41Z	41 min	100%	T20260720-2d0571
Marquette, MI	07-20 21:46Z	48 min	75%	T20260720-17636d
Hamilton, IA; Hardin, IA	07-20 21:51Z	63 min	76%	T20260720-3d6625
Dickinson, MI; Marquette, MI	07-20 21:53Z	27 min	90%	T20260720-3aff83
Dickinson, MI; Iron, MI	07-20 21:56Z	46 min	90%	T20260720-3aff83
Hamilton, IA; Hardin, IA; Story, I	07-20 22:04Z	64 min	87%	T20260720-f6c789
Hamilton, IA	07-20 22:05Z	69 min	87%	T20260720-f6c789
Dickinson, MI; Marquette, MI	07-20 22:05Z	39 min	90%	T20260720-3aff83
Marquette, MI	07-20 22:07Z	55 min	92%	T20260720-40b1de
Hamilton, IA; Hardin, IA; Story, I	07-20 22:18Z	70 min	86%	T20260720-f6c789
Alger, MI; Marquette, MI	07-20 22:22Z	24 min	95%	T20260720-d3ea0e
Delta, MI; Dickinson, MI; Marquett	07-20 22:22Z	40 min	90%	T20260720-3aff83
Marquette, MI	07-20 22:24Z	72 min	92%	T20260720-40b1de
Delta, MI; Marquette, MI; Menomine	07-20 22:28Z	46 min	64%	T20260720-9fe319
Story, IA	07-20 22:36Z	80 min	71%	T20260720-1b2289
Delta, MI; Marquette, MI; Menomine	07-20 22:37Z	47 min	64%	T20260720-9fe319
Alger, MI; Marquette, MI	07-20 22:41Z	45 min	87%	T20260720-eb9fda
Delta, MI	07-20 22:53Z	45 min	52%	T20260720-3fade3
Alger, MI	07-20 22:58Z	46 min	49%	T20260720-7e5f81
Delta, MI	07-20 23:04Z	56 min	52%	T20260720-3fade3
Delta, MI	07-20 23:14Z	40 min	97%	T20260720-2bb3f2
Delta, MI; Menominee, MI	07-20 23:23Z	75 min	52%	T20260720-3fade3
Delta, MI; Menominee, MI	07-20 23:28Z	78 min	51%	T20260720-3fade3
Delta, MI; Menominee, MI	07-20 23:36Z	46 min	54%	T20260720-f5c84e
Delta, MI; Menominee, MI	07-20 23:43Z	53 min	54%	T20260720-f5c84e
Delta, MI; Menominee, MI	07-20 23:53Z	63 min	54%	T20260720-f5c84e
Delta, MI; Menominee, MI	07-21 00:02Z	52 min	93%	T20260720-86dbdc
Delta, MI; Menominee, MI	07-21 00:06Z	56 min	93%	T20260720-86dbdc
Door, WI	07-21 00:12Z	20 min	99%	T20260720-0a265b
Marathon, WI	07-21 00:36Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Marathon, WI	07-21 00:37Z	59 min	85%	T20260720-06f440
Langlade, WI; Menominee, WI; Shawa	07-21 00:43Z	95 min	48%	T20260720-11230c
Jackson, WI	07-21 00:46Z	48 min	73%	T20260720-bbbce1
Marinette, WI	07-21 00:53Z	39 min	50%	T20260721-c6680f
Jackson, WI	07-21 00:53Z	55 min	73%	T20260720-bbbce1
Wood, WI	07-21 00:55Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Menominee, WI; Shawano, WI	07-21 01:00Z	98 min	61%	T20260720-5506b7
Marathon, WI	07-21 01:01Z	23 min	54%	T20260721-124704
Jackson, WI	07-21 01:02Z	56 min	69%	T20260720-bbbce1
Marathon, WI	07-21 01:02Z	74 min	85%	T20260720-06f440
Marathon, WI; Portage, WI	07-21 01:04Z	26 min	54%	T20260721-124704
Marathon, WI; Shawano, WI; Waupaca	07-21 01:06Z	44 min	78%	T20260721-38b4ba
Marinette, WI	07-21 01:08Z	54 min	50%	T20260721-c6680f
Menominee, WI; Shawano, WI	07-21 01:08Z	96 min	66%	T20260720-980dd3
Marathon, WI	07-21 01:10Z	32 min	60%	T20260721-124704
Marathon, WI	07-21 01:11Z	83 min	85%	T20260720-06f440
Menominee, WI; Shawano, WI	07-21 01:22Z	110 min	66%	T20260720-980dd3
Wood, WI	07-21 01:23Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Shawano, WI; Waupaca, WI	07-21 01:25Z	43 min	96%	T20260721-bdd8e9
Marathon, WI; Portage, WI	07-21 01:26Z	48 min	76%	T20260721-124704
Portage, WI; Waupaca, WI	07-21 01:41Z	53 min	87%	T20260721-124704
Marathon, WI; Portage, WI	07-21 01:42Z	64 min	87%	T20260721-124704
Shawano, WI; Waupaca, WI	07-21 01:52Z	70 min	96%	T20260721-bdd8e9
Waupaca, WI	07-21 02:07Z	69 min	87%	T20260721-124704
Calhoun, WV; Gilmer, WV; Ritchie,	07-21 17:30Z	28 min	99%	T20260721-4b8686
Broome, NY; Chenango, NY; Otsego,	07-21 17:40Z	10 min	75%	T20260721-378d39
Calhoun, WV; Gilmer, WV; Ritchie,	07-21 17:41Z	39 min	99%	T20260721-4b8686
Broome, NY; Chenango, NY; Delaware	07-21 17:44Z	14 min	83%	T20260721-b1b0ea
Wayne, PA	07-21 17:49Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Gilmer, WV; Ritchie, WV	07-21 17:50Z	42 min	99%	T20260721-4b8686
Sullivan, NY; Wayne, PA	07-21 17:53Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Morris, NJ	07-21 18:00Z	58 min	58%	T20260721-68cb22
Wayne, PA	07-21 18:02Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Morris, NJ	07-21 18:10Z	66 min	59%	T20260721-68cb22
Morris, NJ	07-21 18:18Z	66 min	75%	T20260721-68cb22
Otsego, NY	07-21 18:22Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Morris, NJ	07-21 18:25Z	35 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Muskingum, OH	07-21 18:28Z	30 min	95%	T20260721-f107b9
Sullivan, NY; Wayne, PA	07-21 18:29Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Morris, NJ	07-21 18:33Z	43 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Muskingum, OH	07-21 18:37Z	31 min	95%	T20260721-f107b9
Sullivan, NY	07-21 18:45Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Morris, NJ	07-21 18:46Z	52 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Clermont, OH	07-21 18:47Z	37 min	58%	T20260721-af5d3a
Muskingum, OH	07-21 18:48Z	40 min	90%	T20260721-f107b9
Bergen, NJ; Passaic, NJ	07-21 18:49Z	41 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Clermont, OH	07-21 18:52Z	42 min	58%	T20260721-af5d3a
Essex, NJ	07-21 18:56Z	58 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Morris, NJ; Somerset, NJ	07-21 18:57Z	75 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Morgan, OH	07-21 18:59Z	89 min	44%	T20260721-9f78b5
Muskingum, OH; Noble, OH	07-21 19:01Z	91 min	44%	T20260721-9f78b5
Carroll, KY; Gallatin, KY; Grant,	07-21 19:01Z	14 min	56%	T20260721-5f66d3
Clermont, OH	07-21 19:03Z	41 min	43%	T20260721-cef28d
Sullivan, NY	07-21 19:03Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Brown, OH; Clermont, OH	07-21 19:03Z	15 min	97%	T20260721-27455b
Morris, NJ	07-21 19:05Z	71 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Muskingum, OH	07-21 19:06Z	72 min	95%	T20260721-f107b9
Morgan, OH	07-21 19:06Z	96 min	44%	T20260721-9f78b5
Noble, OH	07-21 19:07Z	97 min	44%	T20260721-9f78b5
Clinton, OH; Fayette, OH; Highland	07-21 19:07Z	20 min	53%	T20260721-9642b3
Morris, NJ	07-21 19:08Z	86 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Muskingum, OH	07-21 19:14Z	72 min	95%	T20260721-f107b9
Morris, NJ	07-21 19:15Z	89 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Essex, NJ; Passaic, NJ	07-21 19:15Z	69 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Monroe, OH; Noble, OH	07-21 19:19Z	109 min	53%	T20260721-9f78b5
Brown, OH	07-21 19:20Z	26 min	97%	T20260721-27455b
Fayette, OH; Highland, OH	07-21 19:21Z	25 min	65%	T20260721-8cc5cd
Muskingum, OH	07-21 19:21Z	73 min	90%	T20260721-f107b9
Morris, NJ	07-21 19:22Z	96 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Grant, KY; Owen, KY	07-21 19:23Z	36 min	90%	T20260721-5f66d3
Noble, OH	07-21 19:27Z	49 min	95%	T20260721-48f2f3
Adams, OH; Brown, OH	07-21 19:27Z	25 min	94%	T20260721-27455b
Washington, OH	07-21 19:29Z	119 min	53%	T20260721-9f78b5
Muskingum, OH; Noble, OH	07-21 19:30Z	60 min	95%	T20260721-48f2f3
Monroe, OH; Noble, OH	07-21 19:32Z	122 min	53%	T20260721-9f78b5
Grant, KY; Owen, KY; Pendleton, KY	07-21 19:34Z	10 min	86%	T20260721-5f66d3
Grant, KY; Owen, KY; Pendleton, KY	07-21 19:37Z	13 min	86%	T20260721-5f66d3
Monroe, OH; Noble, OH	07-21 19:41Z	71 min	41%	T20260721-12e41c
Monroe, OH	07-21 19:41Z	127 min	53%	T20260721-9f78b5
Essex, NJ; Passaic, NJ	07-21 19:42Z	96 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Morris, NJ	07-21 19:44Z	118 min	89%	T20260721-68cb22
Washington, OH	07-21 19:44Z	134 min	53%	T20260721-9f78b5
Harrison, KY; Scott, KY	07-21 19:52Z	26 min	86%	T20260721-5f66d3
Washington, OH; Tyler, WV	07-21 19:53Z	75 min	42%	T20260721-4c1ba1
Grant, KY; Pendleton, KY	07-21 19:54Z	38 min	86%	T20260721-5f66d3
Monroe, OH	07-21 19:55Z	77 min	42%	T20260721-4c1ba1
Washington, OH; Tyler, WV	07-21 19:59Z	81 min	42%	T20260721-4c1ba1
Bullitt, KY; Hardin, KY; Meade, KY	07-21 20:02Z	54 min	91%	T20260721-7e51d5
Monroe, OH	07-21 20:03Z	85 min	42%	T20260721-4c1ba1
Bullitt, KY; Hardin, KY	07-21 20:06Z	58 min	91%	T20260721-7e51d5
Monongalia, WV	07-21 20:06Z	30 min	63%	T20260721-cc7907
Washington, OH; Tyler, WV	07-21 20:10Z	92 min	42%	T20260721-4c1ba1
Grant, KY; Pendleton, KY	07-21 20:10Z	54 min	86%	T20260721-5f66d3
Doddridge, WV; Tyler, WV	07-21 20:17Z	21 min	99%	T20260721-3c0531
Monongalia, WV	07-21 20:17Z	41 min	73%	T20260721-cc7907
Bullitt, KY	07-21 20:17Z	61 min	97%	T20260721-749eb9
Tyler, WV	07-21 20:20Z	102 min	42%	T20260721-4c1ba1
Doddridge, WV; Tyler, WV	07-21 20:34Z	32 min	100%	T20260721-3c0531
Nelson, KY	07-21 20:37Z	53 min	96%	T20260721-e077c4
Washington, OH; Doddridge, WV; Ple	07-21 20:37Z	57 min	100%	T20260721-3c0531
Breckinridge, KY; Grayson, KY; Har	07-21 20:38Z	34 min	41%	T20260721-55238a
Marion, KY; Nelson, KY; Washington	07-21 20:40Z	38 min	94%	T20260721-dbda38
Monongalia, WV; Preston, WV	07-21 20:40Z	38 min	73%	T20260721-cc7907
Preston, WV	07-21 20:41Z	35 min	73%	T20260721-cc7907
Nelson, KY	07-21 20:42Z	46 min	95%	T20260721-e077c4
Lewis, KY	07-21 20:43Z	39 min	95%	T20260721-123bd3
Doddridge, WV; Pleasants, WV; Ritc	07-21 20:46Z	64 min	100%	T20260721-3c0531
Preston, WV	07-21 20:48Z	38 min	73%	T20260721-cc7907
Marion, KY; Nelson, KY; Washington	07-21 20:50Z	30 min	55%	T20260721-2752bd
Nelson, KY	07-21 20:51Z	55 min	95%	T20260721-e077c4
Doddridge, WV; Pleasants, WV; Ritc	07-21 20:51Z	61 min	100%	T20260721-3c0531
Grayson, KY	07-21 20:54Z	52 min	44%	T20260721-985f79
Greenup, KY	07-21 20:56Z	46 min	95%	T20260721-123bd3
Nelson, KY	07-21 20:57Z	61 min	95%	T20260721-e077c4
Doddridge, WV; Ritchie, WV	07-21 20:58Z	62 min	100%	T20260721-3c0531
Preston, WV	07-21 20:58Z	48 min	73%	T20260721-cc7907
Marion, KY; Washington, KY	07-21 20:59Z	29 min	91%	T20260721-5fcb43
Washington, KY	07-21 21:06Z	36 min	91%	T20260721-5fcb43
Greenup, KY	07-21 21:10Z	60 min	95%	T20260721-123bd3
Bath, KY; Menifee, KY; Montgomery,	07-21 21:11Z	11 min	70%	T20260721-826187
Lewis, KY	07-21 21:11Z	67 min	95%	T20260721-123bd3
Bourbon, KY; Clark, KY	07-21 21:12Z	34 min	41%	T20260721-95c289
Edmonson, KY; Grayson, KY; Hart, K	07-21 21:21Z	47 min	55%	T20260721-0d3fee
Greenup, KY	07-21 21:27Z	69 min	95%	T20260721-123bd3
Bath, KY; Menifee, KY; Montgomery,	07-21 21:31Z	31 min	70%	T20260721-826187
Grayson, KY; Hart, KY	07-21 21:34Z	44 min	90%	T20260721-f53eb7
Barbour, WV; Taylor, WV	07-21 21:35Z	77 min	67%	T20260721-cc7907
Hart, KY	07-21 21:42Z	52 min	90%	T20260721-f53eb7
Barbour, WV; Taylor, WV	07-21 21:44Z	86 min	67%	T20260721-cc7907
Bath, KY; Menifee, KY; Montgomery,	07-21 21:45Z	41 min	57%	T20260721-b39457
Barren, KY; Green, KY; Hart, KY; M	07-21 21:45Z	33 min	85%	T20260721-f53eb7
Hart, KY	07-21 21:47Z	47 min	100%	T20260721-55238a
Muhlenberg, KY	07-21 21:47Z	69 min	82%	T20260721-e7c80c
Cape May, NJ	07-21 21:49Z	21 min	54%	T20260721-2d6264
Butler, KY; Logan, KY	07-21 21:49Z	63 min	82%	T20260721-e7c80c
Casey, KY; Lincoln, KY	07-21 21:52Z	32 min	96%	T20260721-5e1e18
Bath, KY; Menifee, KY; Montgomery,	07-21 21:56Z	52 min	57%	T20260721-b39457
Barren, KY; Green, KY; Hart, KY; M	07-21 21:56Z	44 min	85%	T20260721-f53eb7
Barbour, WV; Taylor, WV	07-21 21:57Z	99 min	67%	T20260721-cc7907
Pulaski, KY; Rockcastle, KY	07-21 21:58Z	22 min	90%	T20260721-5e1e18
Breathitt, KY; Estill, KY; Jackson	07-21 22:03Z	35 min	58%	T20260721-a18e9c
Barren, KY; Green, KY; Hart, KY; M	07-21 22:04Z	50 min	76%	T20260721-b17576
Cape May, NJ	07-21 22:05Z	37 min	54%	T20260721-2d6264
Cape May, NJ	07-21 22:09Z	41 min	54%	T20260721-2d6264
Barren, KY; Green, KY; Hart, KY; M	07-21 22:11Z	57 min	76%	T20260721-b17576
Butler, KY; Logan, KY	07-21 22:12Z	76 min	82%	T20260721-e7c80c
Adair, KY; Green, KY; Hart, KY; Me	07-21 22:16Z	26 min	98%	T20260721-55238a
Breathitt, KY; Estill, KY; Jackson	07-21 22:17Z	25 min	81%	T20260721-4cb824
Barren, KY; Green, KY; Hart, KY; M	07-21 22:17Z	55 min	59%	T20260721-4309f5
Cape May, NJ	07-21 22:19Z	51 min	54%	T20260721-2d6264
Frederick, VA; Hampshire, WV	07-21 22:19Z	23 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Boyd, KY; Lawrence, OH; Cabell, WV	07-21 22:22Z	44 min	91%	T20260721-cd51da
Butler, KY; Logan, KY	07-21 22:24Z	88 min	82%	T20260721-e7c80c
Frederick, VA; Hampshire, WV	07-21 22:24Z	28 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Adair, KY; Green, KY; Metcalfe, KY	07-21 22:26Z	22 min	92%	T20260721-55238a
Cape May, NJ	07-21 22:26Z	58 min	54%	T20260721-2d6264
Frederick, VA	07-21 22:29Z	33 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Laurel, KY; Pulaski, KY; Rockcastl	07-21 22:30Z	2 min	52%	T20260721-ae5689
Crawford, PA	07-21 22:31Z	21 min	77%	T20260721-66ae92
Cape May, NJ	07-21 22:31Z	63 min	54%	T20260721-2d6264
Metcalfe, KY	07-21 22:31Z	27 min	92%	T20260721-55238a
Cabell, WV; Wayne, WV	07-21 22:32Z	44 min	61%	T20260721-cd51da
Venango, PA	07-21 22:33Z	21 min	77%	T20260721-66ae92
Mahoning, OH; Trumbull, OH	07-21 22:33Z	41 min	42%	T20260721-e2ceaa
Frederick, VA	07-21 22:33Z	37 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Cape May, NJ	07-21 22:35Z	67 min	54%	T20260721-2d6264
Frederick, VA	07-21 22:36Z	40 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Adair, KY; Metcalfe, KY	07-21 22:37Z	33 min	96%	T20260721-55238a
Hampshire, WV	07-21 22:38Z	42 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Crawford, PA	07-21 22:39Z	29 min	77%	T20260721-66ae92
Metcalfe, KY	07-21 22:40Z	36 min	96%	T20260721-55238a
Cabell, WV; Wayne, WV	07-21 22:40Z	52 min	61%	T20260721-cd51da
Frederick, VA	07-21 22:40Z	44 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Adair, KY; Metcalfe, KY	07-21 22:41Z	33 min	98%	T20260721-55238a
Elliott, KY	07-21 22:42Z	70 min	84%	T20260721-123bd3
Hampshire, WV	07-21 22:45Z	49 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Venango, PA	07-21 22:47Z	27 min	93%	T20260721-dd916c
Mahoning, OH; Trumbull, OH	07-21 22:47Z	55 min	42%	T20260721-e2ceaa
Metcalfe, KY	07-21 22:48Z	40 min	98%	T20260721-55238a
Lawrence, KY	07-21 22:48Z	68 min	83%	T20260721-cd51da
Metcalfe, KY	07-21 22:50Z	42 min	98%	T20260721-55238a
Mahoning, OH; Trumbull, OH	07-21 22:51Z	59 min	42%	T20260721-e2ceaa
Venango, PA	07-21 22:51Z	35 min	77%	T20260721-66ae92
Elliott, KY	07-21 22:54Z	82 min	84%	T20260721-123bd3
Lawrence, KY	07-21 22:55Z	47 min	75%	T20260721-8a7340
Hampshire, WV	07-21 22:55Z	59 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Pendleton, WV	07-21 22:56Z	40 min	72%	T20260721-adf034
Venango, PA	07-21 22:57Z	41 min	77%	T20260721-66ae92
Laurel, KY; Pulaski, KY; Rockcastl	07-21 22:57Z	29 min	71%	T20260721-ae5689
Cumberland, KY; Metcalfe, KY; Monr	07-21 22:58Z	48 min	98%	T20260721-55238a
Clay, KY; Knox, KY; Laurel, KY	07-21 23:01Z	27 min	71%	T20260721-ae5689
Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:02Z	38 min	84%	T20260721-70d2ab
Frederick, VA; Hampshire, WV; Hard	07-21 23:03Z	67 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Lawrence, KY	07-21 23:05Z	49 min	98%	T20260721-3d9ebf
Grant, WV; Hardy, WV	07-21 23:05Z	37 min	54%	T20260721-ac495b
Mahoning, OH; Trumbull, OH	07-21 23:06Z	74 min	42%	T20260721-e2ceaa
Ocean, NJ	07-21 23:06Z	54 min	51%	T20260721-5920af
Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:10Z	46 min	84%	T20260721-70d2ab
Laurel, KY; Pulaski, KY; Rockcastl	07-21 23:10Z	42 min	71%	T20260721-ae5689
Lawrence, KY	07-21 23:11Z	31 min	98%	T20260721-3d9ebf
Hampshire, WV	07-21 23:12Z	76 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Ocean, NJ	07-21 23:12Z	60 min	51%	T20260721-5920af
Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:16Z	52 min	84%	T20260721-70d2ab
Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:18Z	54 min	84%	T20260721-70d2ab
Lawrence, KY	07-21 23:19Z	31 min	98%	T20260721-3d9ebf
Cumberland, KY; Metcalfe, KY; Monr	07-21 23:21Z	63 min	98%	T20260721-55238a
Clay, KY; Knox, KY; Laurel, KY	07-21 23:21Z	47 min	71%	T20260721-ae5689
Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:23Z	59 min	87%	T20260721-70d2ab
Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:23Z	59 min	87%	T20260721-70d2ab
Pendleton, WV	07-21 23:24Z	36 min	42%	T20260721-07d272
Clarion, PA; Forest, PA; Jefferson	07-21 23:26Z	24 min	79%	T20260721-fad34a
Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:28Z	64 min	91%	T20260721-70d2ab
Shenandoah, VA; Hardy, WV	07-21 23:32Z	96 min	88%	T20260721-1310eb
Carroll, OH	07-21 23:34Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Butler, PA; Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:35Z	55 min	97%	T20260721-70d2ab
Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:35Z	71 min	97%	T20260721-70d2ab
Pendleton, WV	07-21 23:36Z	48 min	42%	T20260721-07d272
Cumberland, KY	07-21 23:36Z	62 min	98%	T20260721-55238a
Forest, PA; Jefferson, PA	07-21 23:40Z	32 min	79%	T20260721-fad34a
Carroll, OH	07-21 23:41Z	25 min	58%	T20260721-83cce8
Rockingham, VA; Shenandoah, VA; Ha	07-21 23:42Z	40 min	85%	T20260721-96d2b6
Rockingham, VA; Shenandoah, VA; Ha	07-21 23:42Z	40 min	85%	T20260721-96d2b6
Butler, PA; Lawrence, PA	07-21 23:46Z	56 min	88%	T20260721-e6c6a0
Shenandoah, VA	07-21 23:49Z	105 min	99%	T20260721-17d11a
Butler, PA	07-21 23:56Z	48 min	88%	T20260721-e6c6a0
Carroll, OH	07-21 23:58Z	42 min	91%	T20260721-83cce8
Carroll, OH	07-21 23:58Z	42 min	91%	T20260721-83cce8
Butler, PA	07-22 00:01Z	53 min	88%	T20260721-e6c6a0
Carroll, OH	07-22 00:04Z	48 min	91%	T20260721-83cce8
Rockingham, VA; Shenandoah, VA	07-22 00:08Z	40 min	77%	T20260721-b3c817
Carroll, OH	07-22 00:13Z	57 min	91%	T20260721-83cce8
Boone, WV; Fayette, WV; Kanawha, W	07-22 00:16Z	54 min	42%	T20260721-926120
Fayette, WV; Kanawha, WV	07-22 00:25Z	35 min	75%	T20260721-3efa00
Greene, VA; Rockingham, VA	07-22 00:33Z	15 min	60%	T20260722-056d2b
Fayette, WV	07-22 00:37Z	43 min	60%	T20260721-238bb0
Greene, VA	07-22 00:47Z	29 min	60%	T20260722-056d2b
Fayette, WV	07-22 00:59Z	27 min	79%	T20260721-3efa00
Fayette, WV	07-22 01:08Z	32 min	79%	T20260721-3efa00
Fayette, WV	07-22 01:13Z	37 min	79%	T20260721-3efa00
Greenbrier, WV	07-22 01:17Z	31 min	73%	T20260721-3efa00
Fayette, WV	07-22 01:21Z	45 min	79%	T20260721-3efa00
Greenbrier, WV	07-22 01:29Z	39 min	45%	T20260722-cda499
Greenbrier, WV	07-22 01:38Z	48 min	45%	T20260722-cda499
Dickson, TN	07-22 01:43Z	61 min	92%	T20260722-59e661
Greenbrier, WV	07-22 01:48Z	30 min	76%	T20260722-24d7ac
Greenbrier, WV	07-22 01:55Z	37 min	76%	T20260722-24d7ac
Dickson, TN	07-22 01:58Z	72 min	92%	T20260722-59e661
Greenbrier, WV	07-22 02:06Z	26 min	79%	T20260722-0e91ce
Greenbrier, WV	07-22 02:15Z	35 min	97%	T20260722-0e91ce
Dickson, TN	07-22 02:18Z	80 min	92%	T20260722-59e661
Greenbrier, WV	07-22 02:24Z	44 min	97%	T20260722-0e91ce
Amherst, VA; Rockbridge, VA	07-22 03:28Z	26 min	76%	T20260722-2a591b
Somerset, MD; Wicomico, MD; Worces	07-22 03:32Z	62 min	56%	T20260722-224b29
Amherst, VA; Rockbridge, VA	07-22 03:36Z	24 min	83%	T20260722-0e91ce
Wicomico, MD; Worcester, MD	07-22 03:43Z	73 min	56%	T20260722-224b29
Amherst, VA; Rockbridge, VA	07-22 03:44Z	36 min	91%	T20260722-0e91ce
Nelson, VA	07-22 03:50Z	10 min	93%	T20260722-0e91ce
Wicomico, MD; Worcester, MD	07-22 03:53Z	83 min	56%	T20260722-224b29
Nelson, VA	07-22 03:57Z	13 min	93%	T20260722-0e91ce
Halifax, VA; Pittsylvania, VA	07-22 16:36Z	12 min	60%	T20260722-b3dd68
Halifax, VA	07-22 16:41Z	17 min	60%	T20260722-b3dd68
Halifax, VA	07-22 16:51Z	27 min	60%	T20260722-b3dd68
Somerset, ME	07-22 19:33Z	47 min	72%	T20260722-18153c
Somerset, ME	07-22 19:38Z	52 min	72%	T20260722-18153c
Hodgeman, KS	07-24 01:41Z	63 min	95%	T20260724-377e19
Beltrami, MN; Lake of the Woods, M	07-24 21:32Z	94 min	95%	T20260724-f4150b
Beltrami, MN; Lake of the Woods, M	07-24 21:46Z	126 min	91%	T20260724-02033a
Beltrami, MN; Clearwater, MN; Lake	07-24 22:03Z	107 min	63%	T20260724-f4150b
Beltrami, MN; Clearwater, MN	07-24 22:23Z	89 min	82%	T20260724-698b15
Beltrami, MN	07-24 22:34Z	24 min	96%	T20260724-63920c
Marshall, MN; Pennington, MN; Polk	07-24 22:49Z	25 min	55%	T20260724-c637b3
Marshall, MN; Pennington, MN; Polk	07-24 23:04Z	36 min	98%	T20260724-fe4bc4
Marshall, MN; Pennington, MN; Polk	07-24 23:20Z	42 min	79%	T20260724-dab483
Marshall, MN	07-24 23:28Z	88 min	94%	T20260724-128c06
Itasca, MN; Koochiching, MN	07-24 23:31Z	35 min	78%	T20260724-82d417
Marshall, MN	07-24 23:35Z	89 min	84%	T20260724-55f0df
Itasca, MN; Koochiching, MN	07-24 23:45Z	33 min	98%	T20260724-5fc632
Pennington, MN; Polk, MN; Red Lake	07-24 23:47Z	41 min	95%	T20260724-c7e15d
Pennington, MN; Polk, MN	07-24 23:49Z	67 min	98%	T20260724-fe4bc4
Marshall, MN	07-24 23:50Z	104 min	84%	T20260724-55f0df
Marshall, MN	07-24 23:50Z	104 min	84%	T20260724-55f0df
Pennington, MN; Red Lake, MN	07-25 00:02Z	50 min	95%	T20260724-c7e15d
Itasca, MN; Koochiching, MN	07-25 00:03Z	47 min	97%	T20260724-251bbc
Marshall, MN	07-25 00:06Z	92 min	66%	T20260724-03b454
Itasca, MN	07-25 00:12Z	42 min	97%	T20260724-42896f
Itasca, MN	07-25 00:24Z	54 min	97%	T20260724-42896f
Itasca, MN	07-25 00:37Z	57 min	96%	T20260724-42896f
Itasca, MN	07-25 00:49Z	43 min	96%	T20260725-745655
Beltrami, MN; Clearwater, MN	07-25 02:07Z	37 min	95%	T20260725-4e5857
Beltrami, MN	07-25 02:17Z	37 min	95%	T20260725-4e5857
Beltrami, MN	07-25 02:27Z	83 min	87%	T20260725-96934a
Beltrami, MN	07-25 02:36Z	66 min	77%	T20260725-108650
Forest, WI; Langlade, WI; Oconto,	07-27 14:44Z	22 min	93%	T20260727-decc99
Forest, WI; Langlade, WI; Oconto,	07-27 14:52Z	30 min	93%	T20260727-decc99
Langlade, WI; Oconto, WI	07-27 15:02Z	36 min	80%	T20260727-3259ce
Dodge, WI; Jefferson, WI; Waukesha	07-27 15:47Z	63 min	52%	T20260727-ad78f2
Jefferson, WI; Waukesha, WI	07-27 16:18Z	94 min	52%	T20260727-ad78f2
Kenosha, WI; Racine, WI; Walworth,	07-27 16:18Z	56 min	51%	T20260727-e569ee
Jefferson, WI; Waukesha, WI	07-27 16:25Z	101 min	52%	T20260727-ad78f2
Kenosha, WI	07-27 16:44Z	82 min	51%	T20260727-e569ee
Kenosha, WI	07-27 16:53Z	91 min	51%	T20260727-e569ee
DuPage, IL	07-27 16:55Z	29 min	89%	T20260727-5889a1
DuPage, IL	07-27 16:58Z	32 min	89%	T20260727-5889a1
Calumet, WI; Manitowoc, WI; Outaga	07-27 16:59Z	79 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
Calumet, WI; Manitowoc, WI; Outaga	07-27 17:01Z	81 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
Calumet, WI; Manitowoc, WI; Outaga	07-27 17:04Z	84 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
DuPage, IL	07-27 17:05Z	39 min	96%	T20260727-5889a1
Cook, IL; DuPage, IL; Will, IL	07-27 17:10Z	36 min	71%	T20260727-4db57e
DuPage, IL	07-27 17:11Z	45 min	96%	T20260727-5889a1
Calumet, WI; Winnebago, WI	07-27 17:12Z	94 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
Calumet, WI; Winnebago, WI	07-27 17:17Z	107 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
Cook, IL; DuPage, IL; Will, IL	07-27 17:18Z	44 min	71%	T20260727-4db57e
Calumet, WI; Winnebago, WI	07-27 17:21Z	101 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
DuPage, IL	07-27 17:23Z	49 min	98%	T20260727-5889a1
Cook, IL; DuPage, IL; Will, IL	07-27 17:27Z	29 min	98%	T20260727-5889a1
Calumet, WI	07-27 17:29Z	111 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
Calumet, WI; Winnebago, WI	07-27 17:29Z	119 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
Will, IL	07-27 17:31Z	57 min	71%	T20260727-4db57e
Cook, IL; Will, IL	07-27 17:38Z	36 min	98%	T20260727-5889a1
Winnebago, WI	07-27 17:40Z	122 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
Calumet, WI	07-27 17:40Z	122 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
Cook, IL; Will, IL	07-27 17:44Z	36 min	97%	T20260727-78026f
Fond du Lac, WI	07-27 17:44Z	134 min	44%	T20260727-ac9919
Cook, IL; Will, IL; Lake, IN	07-27 17:50Z	—	—	no ≥40% track prior
Cook, IL; Lake, IN	07-27 17:55Z	27 min	93%	T20260727-78026f
Cook, IL; Lake, IN	07-27 18:02Z	34 min	93%	T20260727-78026f
Cook, IL; Will, IL; Lake, IN	07-27 18:02Z	14 min	96%	T20260727-aaf5a2
Dodge, WI; Fond du Lac, WI	07-27 18:06Z	42 min	97%	T20260727-263c92
Lake, IN	07-27 18:11Z	19 min	99%	T20260727-4be127
Lake, IN	07-27 18:11Z	43 min	94%	T20260727-78026f
Porter, IN	07-27 18:20Z	28 min	81%	T20260727-e63a6e
Lake, IN	07-27 18:21Z	33 min	75%	T20260727-78026f
Lake, IN	07-27 18:21Z	29 min	99%	T20260727-4be127
Porter, IN	07-27 18:32Z	40 min	81%	T20260727-e63a6e
Porter, IN	07-27 18:43Z	33 min	99%	T20260727-23d2bf
Porter, IN	07-27 18:52Z	42 min	99%	T20260727-23d2bf
La Porte, IN; Marshall, IN; St. Jo	07-27 19:16Z	24 min	44%	T20260727-0bbc85
Marshall, IN; St. Joseph, IN	07-27 19:32Z	40 min	44%	T20260727-0bbc85
Marshall, IN; St. Joseph, IN	07-27 19:50Z	58 min	44%	T20260727-0bbc85
Kendall, IL; Will, IL	07-27 20:13Z	39 min	88%	T20260727-fcbc86
Kendall, IL; Will, IL	07-27 20:19Z	45 min	60%	T20260727-fcbc86
Kendall, IL; Will, IL	07-27 20:27Z	45 min	93%	T20260727-e692c5
Blackford, IN; Grant, IN	07-27 20:36Z	12 min	85%	T20260727-4557ca
Kendall, IL	07-27 20:38Z	56 min	93%	T20260727-e692c5
Kendall, IL	07-27 20:50Z	68 min	93%	T20260727-e692c5
Blackford, IN; Grant, IN	07-27 20:53Z	27 min	85%	T20260727-4557ca
Blackford, IN; Grant, IN	07-27 21:10Z	44 min	85%	T20260727-4557ca
Iroquois, IL; Kankakee, IL	07-27 21:18Z	28 min	99%	T20260727-3d5125
Iroquois, IL; Kankakee, IL	07-27 21:29Z	31 min	99%	T20260727-3d5125
Iroquois, IL; Kankakee, IL	07-27 21:39Z	37 min	99%	T20260727-3d5125
Iroquois, IL	07-27 21:49Z	39 min	99%	T20260727-3d5125
Iroquois, IL	07-27 22:23Z	49 min	46%	T20260727-bb00bb
Iroquois, IL	07-27 22:34Z	58 min	46%	T20260727-bb00bb
Iroquois, IL	07-27 22:43Z	59 min	98%	T20260727-3d5125
Iroquois, IL	07-27 23:05Z	61 min	98%	T20260727-3d5125
Vermilion, IL	07-27 23:07Z	23 min	93%	T20260727-6d1e61
Vermilion, IL	07-27 23:14Z	30 min	95%	T20260727-6d1e61
Vermilion, IL	07-27 23:27Z	43 min	95%	T20260727-6d1e61
Crawford, IL	07-28 00:30Z	28 min	80%	T20260728-f4f0b9
Lawrence, IL	07-28 01:27Z	39 min	70%	T20260728-3419e6
Lawrence, IL	07-28 01:41Z	53 min	70%	T20260728-3419e6

Lead = minutes from the earliest frame of a track that reached ≥40% within 40 km of the warning centroid, to warning issuance. Subtract ~3.2 min measured end-to-end MRMS latency for real-world lead. Stationary artifact tracks excluded.

B · Score-band outcomes — what happens to high-scoring tracks

peak score	N (US)	ever TOR-warned	N settled	near SPC report	median lifetime
90–100	3359	9%	3009	3%	10 min
70–89	4704	7%	3952	2%	10 min
40–69	8176	4%	6969	2%	10 min
<40	79947	1%	72470	0%	4 min

This is the false-alarm ledger. "Ever TOR-warned" means the track overlapped an official warning in space and time — it is NOT tornado confirmation. "Near SPC report" is within 30 km / ±45 min of a filed tornado report (reports lag and under-count rural events, so these are lower bounds). "Ever TOR-warned" is computed over all ended US tracks (warnings are known immediately); "near SPC report" only over tracks ending ≥48 h ago (reports lag) — hence the two N columns. 20437 tracks with mean latitude above 49°N were excluded as Canadian (no NWS/SPC ground truth exists there; Ontario storms between 46–49°N can still leak into the US bucket). Track counts overstate storm counts: the current tracker fragments wide mesocyclones into several segments. Rows marked * have N < 20 — treat as anecdote, not statistics.

C · Triage tier outcomes — does the heuristic mean anything

max tier reached	N	ever TOR-warned	near SPC report
CRITICAL	1542	14%	5%
ELEVATED	3674	7%	2%
WATCH	90970	1%	0%

Tiers recomputed retroactively over every archived track with the live heuristic (v0, hand-set thresholds). This table is the tuning target: rising rates from WATCH → CRITICAL means the triage carries signal.

TIMA is a research system for situational awareness — scores are radar signature strength, not tornado probability, and a low score never means safe. This page is regenerated from the unedited track and warning archives; sample sizes grow daily and early numbers will move.