Northeastern Posey County, IN · MRMS-derived continuous rotation tracking · all times UTC
46MIN BEFORE THE WARNING
TIMA's continuous tracking layer locked onto this storm complex at
21:08Z, held it at up to 85% signature strength,
and was carrying two 99% tracks at the warned location when
NWS Paducah issued its tornado warning at 21:55Z.
First 90%+ score: 21:08Z — 46 minutes of lead.
Replay — recorded track data
—
<40%40–70%70%+warning point
Signature strength vs time
each line = one recorded track segment · red line = official warning issuance
Timeline
First track lock on the storm complex (continuous MRMS az-shear tracking, CONUS-wide layer, no warning trigger involved).
CNN signature score first exceeds 90% — sustained near 97–99% from here on.
NWS Paducah issues a tornado warning for the Lilac — Richard — Speers corridor. Two TIMA tracks at 99% sit inside the warned area.
Honest notes
One storm, several track IDs. The current tracker fragments a wide
mesocyclone region into short track segments (all segments are shown and
listed below); the lead-time claim is therefore system-level — the storm
complex never left the board — not a single unbroken track.
Ground truth: Tornado confirmed by NWS survey.
What this is not: a warning system. TIMA scores radar
signature strength for situational awareness. A low score never means safe;
official warnings apply regardless of any number shown here.