2026-07-11 · case file
Posey County, Indiana
Anticipated — three warnings
Peak score
85%
Best lead
79 min
Track
f44800
Warnings
3
Timeline (UTC)
~21:08TIMA track T20260711-f44800 crosses 40% and begins a continuous history over southwest Indiana, scoring 77–85%.21:55NWS issues the first radar-indicated tornado warning — 47 minutes after the track began.22:13Second tornado warning. Track lead: 65 minutes.22:27Third tornado warning. Track lead: 79 minutes.
The correct null next door
The same evening, a landspout was reported near Valmeyer, Illinois — 210 km from this storm. TIMA had no track there, correctly: non-mesocyclonic landspouts have no parent circulation for radar-scale detection. That contrast — a strong signal here, honest silence there — is the point of publishing both.
How to read this file
The three warnings were radar-indicated; ground verification of a tornado for this storm is pending in official reports. Track scores are signature strength, not calibrated probability. All lead times are stated raw; median MRMS data latency is a measured 3.2 minutes. This is a research record, not a warning product.